Boston-Utah NBA Finals?

Who will win it all? The numbers speak
By John HollingerESPN Insider
Updated: April 18, 2008

Has there ever been an NBA playoff season that had this much excitement leading into it? Very doubtful, and I have the inbox to prove it. The Western Conference playoffs in particular are generating all kinds of debate, with fans of all eight teams absolutely convinced they can make a deep playoff run.

If that isn't enough, two teams face first-round series that are essentially referenda on giant gambles they took with midseason trades. And at least two teams that won 54 games (or more) will be at the golf course within the next fortnight.

Back in the East things are a bit more clear-cut, yet plenty of wild cards abound even here -- from Agent Zero to the Pistons' hot temper to what the heck we're supposed to think about the Magic.

Today, we dive in and, either try to make some sense of things ... or point out things that make some sense. With that in mind, here are eight big playoff questions -- one for every seed -- and my answers:


1. How tight are things in the West?

To make the point, let's look at the 1 versus 8 battle, which appears to be a dogfight in the making -- we're talking about 57 wins versus 50 wins (62 versus 52 in terms of expected wins). The Lakers are the favorites, obviously, but Denver trailed by only 2.2 points in the final edition of the Power Rankings.

For some perspective, consider that in the past four Eastern Conference Finals we had a 50-win team beating a 53-win team, 52 beating 64, 54 beating 59, and 54 beating 61. Seen in that light rather than in terms of a 1 versus 8 matchup, Denver's beating the Lakers would be fairly unremarkable. It goes deeper than that -- it's quite possible to have something like a Suns-Nuggets or Mavs-Rockets conference finals, and not in a 0.000001 percent kind of way either.

In fact, let's put some odds behind this. The Nuggets have an 5.1 percent chance of making the Finals, according to the Playoff Odds tool -- that's about a 1-in-20 shot. That's pretty darn good for the eighth team in an eight-team pool -- almost half as good as the 1-in-8 shot (12.5 percent) held by the "average" West playoff team.Things get even crazier if we play out the first two rounds statistically. The teams with the best odds of making it out of the first round are Utah and the Lakers -- the Jazz, despite not having home court, are over 80 percent, while the Lakers are a shade under 75 percent. Relative to previous years, those aren't great odds, with even the best team having a 1-in-5 shot of going home.

In other words, this is an NCAA tournament-esque crapshoot. No. 1 and No. 2 seeds are a combined 89-7 since the playoffs expanded in 1983-84, for a .928 winning percentage. But in this year's West, the odds for the top two seeds are of the type we usually see in a 3-6 series.

Want some more crazy stuff? How about:

• Between Utah, Denver and Dallas, there's about a two-in-five chance that a Western team will make the Finals without having home court in any round.

• There's a 3.4 percent chance that all four lower seeds will win in the first round.

• And, my favorite: There's only an 11.6 percent chance that the top two seeds will meet in the conference finals ... but an 18.8 percent chance that a team seeded sixth or lower will have home-court advantage for that round.

(By the way, this exercise isn't nearly as fun in the East because the Celtics are total killjoys -- more on that in a minute.)

And remember, this is without any allowance for the possibility of injuries or suspensions or sudden lineup changes or whatnot. So get out the dartboard and hurl away. For all the predictions we're all making in the West, this is the first playoffs I can remember where there's a real risk of going 0-for-7 on the three rounds in the conference.

2. Why are the Playoff Odds so high on Utah?

There's a tendency to overreact to What Just Happened, so Utah's stinker against San Antonio on Wednesday night probably increased everyone's doubts about this team.

Nonetheless, the Power Rankings have Utah as the league's second-best team, and the Playoff Odds give them the best chance of winning the West at 31.0 perecnt.

The Jazz played extremely well down the stretch. Even with the meltdown in San Antonio included, over the last quarter of the season the Jazz had an offensive efficiency rating of 116.0 -- that dwarfs the Suns' league-leading mark of 111.2. To put that into context, if they had done it for a full season, the Jazz would have been by far the best offensive team of all time.

Utah went 37-12 after Jan. 1, and the number of blowout wins over quality teams is staggering. The Jazz beat the Celtics by 18 in Boston -- the Celtics' worst loss of the season anywhere. The Jazz beat New Orleans by 28, and then again by 22 -- two of the Hornets' three worst defeats of the year. They beat San Antonio by 26 and the Lakers by 24 -- for each, their worst loss of the season. They beat Phoenix by 22 and beat Denver by 27 ... twice.

Overall, Utah won an astounding 18 games by more than 20 points. In contrast, the Jazz didn't lose a single game by more than 20 points all season ... until Wednesday night in San Antonio. And given their questionable motivation in that game and Deron Williams' trouble with a bruised buttock, it's hard for me to hold that against them much when we have 81 games of evidence that they're the best pick in a compacted Western pack.

3. Why are the Playoff Odds so down on Detroit?

Detroit is barely ahead of Orlando in the Power Rankings, and the Playoff Odds give Orlando nearly the same odds of winning the conference. Since that doesn't seem possible, let me explain.

When I first saw this, I presumed it was because the Pistons have been biding their time playing their scrubs for the past month and a half. That sounds plausible, but actually Detroit played really well over the final three weeks -- the Pistons went 10-3 with a scoring margin of 8.7 points per game in their final 13 games. The real problem was what they did in the month prior to that, when they went 11-8 and got waxed by 18 by the Magic in their own building.

The other half of this equation is the Magic, who had a scoring margin of 10.0 points per game in the final quarter of the season. That's truly impressive, even if it came against a bunch of bad teams, and it's why Orlando is a surprising seventh in the Power Rankings.

Nobody really paid attention to the Magic's finishing kick because their playoff spot was sealed -- and because it wasn't accompanied by a great win-loss record (they lost three times by a single point). But check this out: All 15 of their wins after February were by double figures. It was a total non-story, but Orlando played as well as any team in the league over the final quarter of the season.

All of this is a roundabout way of saying that I think the second-round series between the Magic and Piston will be much, much better than anticipated. I wouldn't bet on Orlando, but should we expect a hard-fought, nail-biting series? Yes.

4. How good is Boston, really?

A lot better than you might think. Most observers look at the East and see the Celtics as a really good team who may or may not get past Detroit in the conference finals.

Wake up, folks -- this is one of the best teams of all time, and you might be surprised how easily they roll through the playoffs. I realize this is raining on the parade a bit since everybody is so jacked up about the competition in store this postseason, but I have to warn you there's a chance the Celtics are just going to flat-out destroy everybody.

Boston went 66-16, one of the best marks in league history, but even that mark sells the Celtics short. At 10.3 points per game, they had the scoring margin of a 70-win team. That scoring margin is better than all but three teams since the ABA-NBA merger, and those teams all had Michael Jordan. By contrast, last season the Spurs had a scoring margin of 7.8 ppg, and that was easily the best mark in the league.

Here's the real crazy part: their numbers were this good even though they coasted the final month and a half! Kevin Garnett didn't play 40 minutes in a game after March 5; he averaged 31.9 minutes in March and 25.4 in April. For Paul Pierce, it was 32.6 and 27.4; for Ray Allen, it was 31.2 and 29.0. Plus, each of them skipped two April games just to freshen up.

They have the three stars, yes, but they also play suffocating defense -- the Celts had one of best defensive seasons of all time, in fact (we'll get into that more as we get deeper into the playoffs). Meanwhile, a bench that was supposed to be a liability has instead kicked some serious butt, and the late-season addition of Sam Cassell added a crunch-time scorer to the mix.

The Western Conference is where all of the excitement and most of the quality resides, but I'd be very surprised if the West champs can beat Boston in the Finals ... and even more surprised if somebody besides Boston was their opponent.

5. San Antonio ... 8th? Really?

Yes, really. The Power Rankings seemed like raging Spurs fanatics a year ago, keeping them No. 1 even while Dallas won 67 games. But this year the Rankings have soured on San Antonio, putting them No. 8 in the league heading into the postseason.

We tend to look at the players and the uniforms and think these are the same Spurs, especially because they won only two games fewer than they did last season. But in a lot of ways they're not the same.

For one thing, the tiny drop in wins conceals a much larger difference in average scoring margin -- San Antonio outscored opponents by 7.8 points per game a year ago, but posted only a +4.8 mark this season. That difference of three points is normally worth eight wins, but San Antonio was much more fortunate in close games this year than it was a year earlier.

Additionally, there's the matter of peaking at the right time. Last year San Antonio was pretty good in the first half but went bonkers over the final two months. This year it's the opposite case -- San Antonio started the year 17-3, but finished it 13-9. In the Spurs' final 29 games they cleared 100 points only nine times and, as I discussed in a recent blog item, their offense has had a disturbing pattern of going off the rails after halftime.

That's the biggest difference between this year's Spurs and last year's. San Antonio ranked only 13th in offensive efficiency this season; last season the Spurs were fourth. If they can't find a way to generate more offense, they could be headed for a very quick exit.

6. What do we make of the Cavs?

Not much.

Let me put it this way: Last year the defending Eastern Conference champion Miami Heat limped through the season with 44 wins while giving up more points than they scored, and lots of folks said not to count them out -- and then they lost in four depressing games in the first round.

This year, the defending Eastern Conference champions limped through the season with 45 wins while giving up more points than they scored. You figure out the ending.

The only difference for Cleveland is that Washington, the Cavs' first-round opponent, also had a negative scoring margin ("The NBA: Where the league's 15th- and 16th-best teams' meeting in the Eastern Conference playoffs happens"). But one can argue the Wizards are better than they've shown because Caron Butler missed 24 games and Gilbert Arenas hardly played at all. With those two and Antawn Jamison, Washington is an offensive force -- and unlike last year, the Wizards occasionally play defense now.

7. How important is New Orleans' lack of experience?

Less important than you might think.

We're looking at a small sample here, but check out the out-of-nowhere teams to get a high seed in the playoffs over the past decade, and you'll see they didn't suddenly start gagging once the calendar hit May:

• Phoenix needed only 10 games to reach the conference finals after taking the league by storm in 2005 before falling to a superior Spurs team. The same year, upstart Seattle crushed Sacramento and then took eventual champ San Antonio to six tough games before succumbing.

• New Jersey won the conference in 2002 after rocketing to the top seed; the Nets' opponent in the conference finals that year was Boston, which had made a similar rise from the ashes.

• Milwaukee went from a forgettable mediocrity to division champ in 2001; the Bucks made the conference finals and were a missed Glenn Robinson bunny away from upsetting the Sixers.

But what is important for New Orleans is another issue that I don't hear anybody talking about: fatigue. I was shocked the Hornets played their starters in Dallas on Wednesday night, because if any team needed the rest it's this one.

New Orleans played the most back-loaded schedule in the league, with 10 games in the final 16 days and 18 in the final month. Eleven of those were on the road, including a six-game Eastern road trip at the end of March and a tough three-games-in-four-nights trip out West the final week.

They won some games on pure determination, most notably their 98-97 theft in Orlando on April 1, but check out the numbers the past couple of weeks. They went 2-4 in the final six games, including a 66-point clunker at home against Utah, and Chris Paul in particular saw his numbers dive: in 10 April games he averaged 17.6 points per game and shot 43.9 percent, even though six of the 10 opponents were terrible defensive teams (Minnesota, Golden State, New York, Miami, Sacramento and the Clippers).

Hornets coach Byron Scott is with these guys every day and presumably has a feel for their fatigue level, but it sure seemed to me the rest issue was more important to this particular team than the incremental improvement in its odds it would have had by facing Denver instead of Dallas ... especially because New Orleans couldn't guarantee that result even by playing its stars.


8. Enough with the numbers -- who's going to be there in the end?


OK, now for the fun part. Here's how it will all go down -- and remember, I gave you Chicago as your Eastern Conference champion before the season, so you know you can take these picks to the bank.

You might have seen my first-round picks plastered elsewhere on this site, but for those who haven't, I like Boston in 4, Detroit in 5, Orlando in 6 and Washington in 6 in the East, and the Lakers in 5, New Orleans in 7, Utah in 6 and Phoenix in 6 out West.

My reasoning on Phoenix, by the way, is mainly that the Suns built their team to face the Spurs. Shaquille O'Neal has done extremely well defending Tim Duncan over the years. Somehow, San Antonio has to figure out how to make Shaq a liability on D and not an asset.

In the second round, I see Utah and the Lakers meeting in what should be the true conference finals -- which is why I was so disappointed the Jazz lost to San Antonio on Wednesday and missed out on the No. 3 seed. I have Utah beating L.A. in a six-game barn burner that's about as close to a coin-flip as any pairing you can come up with. (Note: I generally pick the road team to win in six and the home team in either five or seven, since the odds say that's how it's most likely to end. I made an exception for Orlando because it was so strong on the road.)

The Hornets-Suns second-round matchup should be a doozy, too. New Orleans might be even more exhausted after going seven against Dallas, but Phoenix doesn't match up nearly as well with the Hornets -- and New Orleans has home court. Thus, I'll take the Hornets in seven again, in another series that looks to be about dead even.

That sets up Chris Paul versus Deron Williams in the conference finals, which is a matchup we all want to see (well, unless you happen to walk around town in a gold "24" jersey). I think Paul might finally get the better of the matchup individually, but Williams has better teammates -- so Utah rolls to the Finals in six.

Back East, I already gave away my Pistons-Magic projection -- Detroit in a grueling seven. Meanwhile, the Boston juggernaut will dismiss Washington in four. That sets up a much-awaited conference finals battle between Boston and Detroit. But I think Boston will win in five easier-than-expected games.


The Finals? Utah versus Boston.

The 2-3-2 format and Utah's dominance at home will keep things interesting for a while, but mostly it will allow the Celtics to celebrate a title on their home court after knocking off the Jazz in six.

Well, that's what the odds say, anyway. Now let's see what really happens.

John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider.

Hair Today, Gone Tomorrow

Apparently, Ron Howard and Tom Hanks have decided to fast-track ‘Angels and Demons,’ the prequel to ‘The Da Vinci Code,’ due to the looming writers’ strike. I’m excited for the second movie, because I thought that ‘A & D’ was a better book and more suited for a movie adaptation. Of course, I’m not excited to see Hanks’ faux mullet again.

Watch the mullet catch wind and carry Tom to safety!

I’ve recently discussed all the Oscar-potential movies that I wasn’t excited to see this year. It sounds as if I’m not the only one who’s decided that indie films are too depressing. Here’s an article explaining America’s lack of desire to see these dire movies, but rather more escapist fare. Dramas used to really be in vogue around this time of year, but it seems people are more interested in kiddie flicks and horror sequels.

‘Scrubs’ is coming back for its final season, but the creators of the show have decided to tone down the broad comedy a little, reminiscent of the first season. I’m excited about this since the first season is probably my favorite one. Also, look for a ‘Princess Bride’-themed episode this year. Inconceivable!

So, the Jazz are ranked seventh in this week’s ESPN power rankings. I only have one question: how did they move up one spot from last week if they haven’t even played a game yet?

A Thousand Words

Sometimes it’s easier to express a situation through a snapshot, a quick glimpse of the profundity of any given moment in time, than it would be to write an entire treatise on the subject. Hence the phrase, “A picture is worth a thousand words.” Or Andrei Kirilenko might suggest a phrase from the Russian writer, Ivan Turgenev, who wrote "A picture shows me at a glance what it takes dozens of pages of a book to expound" (Fathers and Sons).

Thus I’ve decided that from now on I’m demanding a more visual form of communication from friends and family. If you want to text me that you’re hungry and want to eat; send me an image of you with an index finger pointed at your gaping mouth. If you’d like to send me an email about “a brief justification for the ontological necessity of modern man's existential dilemma;” send me a .jpg of Ethan Hawke—I’ll get it. Or if you’d like to send me the newest Twilight book for my birthday, simply snap photos of each page of the book, assemble the pictures in an easy-to-handle format, and then bind them together.

Here's some more photographs that convey meaning and would make great picture books.

Side Point -- From Russia with Loathing

In his most recent post, Jedboy danced on the subject of Andrei Kirilenko.

Nice going, Jedboy. Your skirting around the subject has worked me into a lathery foam which I must now rid myself through html composition. Reader, prepare thyself as if you were in the splash zone at Sea World -- this foam is a spewing.

Andrei Kirlenko enjoys the traditional Euro-League Championship Trophy -- a decent supper and free passage through the Iron Curtain.

Kirilenko will be hard to trade -- not because of his, as Jedboy calls it, "whining." He's hard to trade because he's a maximum contract player on a team that doesn't need a maximum contract in return. The Jazz have two future max contract players in DeRon Williams and Carlos Boozer. The Jazz need parts to sustain and lift Williams and Boozer. Shawn Marion of Phoenix isn't going to do that because he's a key player in the Phoenix system.

Somebody like Ray Allen or Cory Maggette is what the Jazz need -- a proven money shooter at the small forward/shooting guard position. That is best attained through free agency, as a team doesn't have to worry about matching contracts and trade value. A team signs who it wants to sign.

Finally, let us not believe that Kirilenko is "whining" because he is a professional athlete. Don't hold athletes to a higher standard then you would yourself. For example, I'm not particularly fond of my current workplace, my co-workers, or my supervisor.

The difference is as a person in a common workplace I have the agency to move at-will. Professional athletes are literally property of their team. If you're an athlete, they own you. Whereas I can simply turn in a notice to quit and apply somewhere else, if Kirilenko wants a better NBA situation, he has to demand a trade.

From Russia with Loathing?

It’s been reported on Andre Kirilenko’s Russian blog that he wants out of Utah. I’ll admit that I’d love to get rid of him. I think he’s an amazing player, but that ultimately he just doesn’t fit into Sloan’s system. He can’t be a go-to guy cuz he’s not that reliable on offense, plus he’d be better in a high-octane offense that relies heavily on fast breaks and running situations (i.e. Suns and Warriors). He plays extremely well on defense when he’s looking to help, but in one-on-one situations he seems to get burned quite a lot. It’s extremely unfortunate to have to let someone of his talent and caliber go, but if he’s not happy here and willing to submit to Sloan’s system, then we should probably just trade him. Of course with his recent wining and the fact that he wants to be traded probably means teams won’t put up very much for him, which might mean we can’t really trade for anyone that would make an immediate impact. гречиха

I'm Totally Going Hunting this Fall

Somewhere, behind that giant Alaskan grizzly carcass, sits the legendary Karl Malone. I bet he totally slayed this thing with his bear ..... er, bare hands. I couldn't resist that pun. If only Karl Malone had displayed this killer instinct on the court, THE JAZZ MAY HAVE WON A CHAMPIONSHIP!!!!

This bear killing reminds me of one of the most super ludicrous bad guys in movie history. If you haven't ever seen Bruce Lee's Enter the Dragon, go now to the nearest place where videos are sold or rented, and buy or rent this video. The main antagonist, whom Bruce Lee opposes, is an uber-crimelord that has no right hand, only things he attaches as the circumstances call for. For the better part of the movie, he is wearing a bear paw. Just walking around his dojo and rock garden, strolling through the orchids .... with a bear hand.

Courtesy of http://www.hcn.org/servlets/hcn.Article?article_id=17076 and http://deadspin.com/sports/die-bear-die/karl-malone-will-kill-all-grizzlies-279705.php

I have to ask...

Is having a fear of clowns an actual phobia?

How much money would Pam Beesly make in the real world?

Has anyone tried VitaminWater yet? I wonder if it’s like Diet Coke Plus?

What’s a hipster anyway?

How long has it been since you’ve thrown a boomerang?

Is Andrei Kirilenko the son of that guy from Rocky IV? Should we trade him?

Is ginormous an actual word?

What happened to Wesley from The Princess Bride?

I wonder what the number one song was on the day I was born?

What happened to the conjoined twins from Siamese Dream?

Should they make a new Indiana Jones trilogy? Hey it worked for Star Wars, er, kind of…

Warriors Bullies and Mavericks Cowards?

According to Charley Rosen of Foxsports, the Warriors are nothing but bullies evidenced by their late-game cheap shots and uncalled-for assaults. I think that’s a little extreme. The Warriors were obviously frustrated last night, which resulted in some hard fouls, but it’s hard for me to call them bullies. What is obvious, however, is that Don Nelson’s version of NBA basketball (run-and-gun and live or die by the 3) is fun to watch, but doesn’t get you far in the playoffs. Rosen goes on to say “the bottom line, though, is that bullies can only intimidate and beat cowards, i.e., the Dallas Mavericks. And there's nothing cowardly about any team coached by Jerry Sloan.” True dat. Double true.

Derek Fisher: Father First, Basketball Player Second

In case you were wondering, yes, I still love the Jazz! I can’t get over their game on Wednesday when they beat the Warriors to take a much-needed 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Semis. It was truly an amazing experience to watch them come back and win this instant classic thriller in overtime—I wouldn’t believe it if I hadn’t seen it with my own eyes. There were so many heroes and so much drama that it really can’t be summed up in one paragraph. So, I won’t. But, I would like to say my prayers are with Derek Fisher and his 10-month old daughter as well as Dee Brown. Good luck tonight guys!

Are you a Jazz fan?

Someone asked me if I was a Jazz fan recently. I told her, as I had my hand across my heart, that “they complete me.” Just kidding. I feared mentioning something like that due to the awkward silence that might have ensued. It was a casual question, that deserved a response, but I couldn’t tell her how I really felt about the Jazz—I don’t think she would’ve understood. You see, as a child I dreamed about one day making it into the NBA. I mean this was an actual option for me—and I don’t think I’m alone on this. Many kids go through a phase of thinking that they’re bound to be the next Michael Jordan, or in my case, John Stockton. I mean why not? I had already made it onto the Junior Jazz, that has to mean something right? (Isn’t the Junior Jazz some sort of pre-screening that the Jazz do before they select you on the team?)

Through my basketball career I slowly came to the realization that the NBA wasn’t really going to happen mainly due to the absence of Michael Jordan’s genes in my god-given physicality. However, for some reason, I made the high school basketball team every year, even though I hardly played. But I remained passionate about it. Maybe that’s why I made the team—I was their Rudy or something. Even though my obvious lack of skills and minimal athletic talent shattered my childhood dreams of playing professional basketball, I never stopped being a fan. These pro basketball players were guys that were living out my childhood fantasies. They were real-life superheroes with superhuman strength and power. They were doing what I could only dream about. How could I explain this to her? How could I explain my unwavering allegiance to my home-town superhero Jazz team? The only way I could do this was by explaining the Jazz. My team. I had to explain to her the history of the Jazz as well as their current situation. So, here goes:

The Jazz just beat the Houston Rockets in the opening round of the playoffs yesterday in a seven game series. Not one sports analyst had the Jazz going past the first round. I’ll admit I didn’t either, along with my friends and family. It’s not that we’re disloyal Jazz fans, it’s just that the Jazz’s last month of regular season play was lackluster at best. This is a team that barely missed the playoffs last year in a very strong Western Conference. Thus, this year’s expectations were modestly higher than last years. We, as in the Jazz management, made a few trades in the off-season and acquired our only veteran (Derek Fisher) to bring level-headedness and poise to a still fairly young team. We picked up some players in the draft (Ronnie Brewer, Paul Millsap) that looked to bring an immediate impact. And then the season began with a blitzkrieg start.

For the first couple of months the Jazz were the best team in the league, stockpiling an unusual amount of come-from-behind victories. As the regular season wore on the Jazz were humbled back to earth, as injuries mounted and other teams came into their own. But even then, down the stretch, the Jazz had a good chance to take the Division championship as well as a fourth seed with home-court advantage going into the playoffs. But, as previously mentioned, the Jazz began to implode by losing games to lesser teams due to selfish play and a lack of team cohesion. This resulted in losing home-court advantage to the Houston Rockets, which is an almost assured death nail in playoff advancement. The Jazz are an amazing home-court team because of the louder-than-life fans that bring enthusiasm and heart into every game. The Rockets had surged late in the season and looked pretty unstoppable, however. The media had been all over the Tracy McGrady angle due to his superstar status and the fact that he’d never gotten past the first-round in the playoffs after five tries. The other all-star was the Chinese player, Yao Ming, who some consider the best center in the game today.

And here were the Jazz; an up-and-coming team that couldn’t get media attention even if they recruited Paris Hilton. The dynamic trio of Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, and Deron Williams had put up all-star numbers the whole season, but it was only Okur that would make it into the all-star game due to the fact that another player dropped out caused by injury. With a hodgepodge of international players that makes it look like a UN basketball training camp, little or no experience in the playoffs, and a coach that some consider past his prime the Jazz started the series.

They played their little hearts out in the first two games at Houston only to lose their half-time advantage—a trend they would continue throughout the series. It was clear by the time that they were down 0-2 that the Jazz had a fighting chance to win some home games, but to win the series seemed a little far-fetched at this point. Oh well, there’s always next year, I thought. They remained competitive in each of their losses, but the home-court factor seemed to be insurmountable. Game 3 proved to be a catalyst for the Jazz, as they completely dominated the Rockets. They carried that confidence with them into Game 4, which resulted in rare blowout for the Jazz. With the series even at 2-2 a glimmer of hope started to creep into some fans’ minds. But the Jazz needed to win at least one game in Houston in order to take the series, and this seemed impossible. Game 5 turned out to be a heartbreaker for the Jazz, as they lost only by four points at the very end of the game. They were right there—they could’ve take home-court away. Game 6 turned into a struggle as the frustrations of the series started to boil over, with technical fouls and hard-hitting physical play. Both teams knew the other inside and out at this point—both could exploit one another’s weaknesses. The Jazz would prevail, however, tying the series again at 3-3.

Before the start of the series every sport analyst picked Houston to triumph, but many of them said it would go to seven games. This meant that the two teams were pretty evenly matched. This was true. In fact, I would argue that this was the best series to watch in the first round, because of how close these teams were. But, of course it was being overshadowed by the bigger and more surprising stories of the eighth-seed Warriors taking down the top-seeded Mavs or the Baby Bulls sweeping the defending-champ Heat. The Jazz have never won on the road in a seven-game series before. In fact, it was a rare feat for any team to win on the road in Game 7, as only 18 teams have ever done it in the playoffs!

I went and watched the game at my brother’s house and there was a group of people that included males and females. It was obvious that the guys in the room were glued to the HDTV as if all their childhood hopes depended on this game, and in a way it did. The women were more interested in talking about baby names and other things, but I really have no idea because I couldn’t hear them—I could only hear the announcers and subtle roar of the crowd. The Jazz would play unbelievably good as they took an early 16-point lead. This lead would diminish some as they went into half-time, but they still looked like they could steal the game. However, the third quarter started with a thud, as the Rockets came out blazing hot and that unmistakable feeling of angst came over me, like it did in the previous three losses of the series. The Jazz were never able to maintain their composure down the stretch of the game at Houston and it seemed like they were destined for summer vacation. They even lost the lead at one point, but then something truly amazing happened. The planets were to align as the Jazz took back the lead. AK-47, who’s been especially erratic in this series, was to shoot a rare three and by the grace of Putin himself, it went in! Okur, who’d been great on defense in this series, but seriously lacking offensively, was to reclaim his “Money Man” title by hitting two other three pointers down the stretch.

Even with critical misses toward the end of the game by the team, Carlos Boozer (35 pts) was able to come up with some big offensive rebounds that would ultimately give the Jazz a much-deserved victory. They had done it! Jerry’s kids had gone on to win on the road in the seventh game. Most people thought it was impossible, but they proved all the naysayers wrong. Now, as the Jazz get ready to play America’s newly-minted underdog team (Warriors), they’ll have that home-court advantage that eluded them in this series, which will hopefully give them enough confidence to keep my childhood dreams alive a little bit longer.

I was about to explain some of this to the girl, but I prefaced it with, “Yeah, I love the Jazz. They’re my favorite team.” She quickly stopped me and said, “Oh, I meant jazz music.” “Oh, ok. I must have misunderstood the question.” But, who could’ve understood all of this anyway?